Currency trading training is not over when a trader finally sees the equity increasing in their account.
The Forex market is a very demanding environment and for a trader to maintain a success level, constant currency trading training is necessary.
The following 7 favorite tips can be used as timely reminders and need to be read and absorbed on a regular basis:
#1 - Take Responsibility
"The buck stops here." Don't blame the markets, or a host of other factors for a losing trade. You entered it for whatever reasons you had at the time. Take responsibility for it.
#2 - Use Each Losing Trade As A Stepping Stone
You lost a trade? Good. It will help you focus on a potential problem in your trading method. If after careful analysis you are satisfied you worked according to your plan, fine. Move on.
#3 - Never Become Impatient With The Market
New traders in the early stages of their currency trading training can be eaten alive by the market. During periods of consolidation with little liquidity the anxious impatient trader will force trading opportunities where there none.
Learn to accept the fact that around 70% of the time price will be in a consolidation channel.
#4 - Focus Daily On Improving Your Trading Skills
Currency trading training is an ongoing process. Day by day, step by step the trader improves. So rather than be preoccupied with profits and losses, concentrate on developing the skills. Your account will start to reflect your focus in time.
#5 - Be Pleased With Well Executed Trades Whatever The Outcome
Is this possible? Yes. You can feel well pleased even with a losing trade if you stuck to your methodology and executed the trade well. It is dangerous to feel good about a winning trade when you went against your trading method to achieve it. Your elation is likely to be short lived. Learn to execute the plan!
#6 - If In Doubt Stay Out
The feeling of regret can drain a person mentally and emotionally from entering a poorly considered trade. Once the trigger has been pulled and the trade starts going wrong, the agony of watching it inch towards your stop should renew in the trader the determination to stay out when in doubt!
#7 - Always Have A Good Reason
Currency trading training involves careful analysis of reasons for entering a trade. Just because price is high is not a reason to go short or long if price is low. Price will do what price wants to do so rather than trading from gut reaction, e.g. "Price can't go any higher (or lower)" learn to detach emotions and use pure technical analysis to establish a number of reasons why you should take a trade.
As currency trading training is a long term commitment, skills and disciplines learned can sometimes be forgotten as bad habits creep in.
It is necessary to constantly renew the thinking processes by repeating over and over the habits of successful traders.
These 7 favorite tips will keep the newer trader out of a lot of trouble!
Rabu, 23 Januari 2008
Selasa, 15 Januari 2008
Forex Swing Trading with Elliott Wave
When evaluating the forex market for swing trade opportunities the focus is placed on predicting directional changes or continuations for a given currency pair. For this we rely on technical analysis.
In technical analysis, just as in fundamental analysis, there are lagging indicators and leading indicators. One of the most reliable tools used to predict forex market swings is Elliott Wave analysis. Elliott Wave analysis can be used to identify trends and countertrends, trend continuation or exhaustion and to evaluate the potential price targets of a trend.
You can apply Elliott Wave analysis to both long and short position swing trade set ups for your currency pairs.
Elliott Wave theory is named after Ralph Nelson Elliott, who concluded that the markets moved in a repetitive pattern of waves. He attributed this action to the mass psychology of the market.
Elliott concluded that the market¡¯s movement was a direct result of the mass psychology of the time and that the stock market is a fractal. A fractal is an object that is similar in shape, but at different scales. A great example of a fractal in nature is a stalk of broccoli. The stalk and the individual branches look exactly the same; just the branches are smaller in scale.
Fractals just happen to form in accordance with Fibonacci ratios. Is this a coincidence?
Elliott attributes this mass psychological move to the human trait of herding. Even though Elliott¡¯s theories were based on stock market price movements, it has been applied to evaluating Presidential approval ratings and fashion trends changes as well.
The conclusion, the market price actions are not the cause of economic growth or slow down, but the reflection of the mass psychology of investors. If the mood of the investing public is upbeat then a bull market ensues. This is counter to what most individual perceive, that because there is a bull market the mood of the investing public is upbeat.
Elliott Wave patterns follow a sequence that the markets move up in a series of 3 waves and down in a series of 2 waves. This 3 wave impulse and 2 wave corrective sequence form the foundation of the 5 Wave impulse pattern (the opposite is true in a downtrend).
The Elliott Wave Counts are as follows;
Wave 1 - Short Covering
Wave 2 - Pullback from Short Covering
Wave 3 - Major Rally Phase
Wave 4 - Institution Pause in the Rally
Wave 5 - Retail Buying
Wave 1 is usually the weakest of the impulse waves. It is a brief rally based on short covering of the bears from a previous move down. When Wave 1 is complete, the currency pair sells off, creating Wave 2.
Wave 2 ends when the market fails to make new lows. You often see dominant reversals patterns form at the end of this wave signaling the being of the rally phase or Wave 3.
Wave 3 is the longest and strongest of the impulse waves. This signals strong currency buying or selling in the direction of the trend. This trend usually starts of slowly, but tends to accelerate as it breaks to new highs above the top of Wave 1.
Like any trend, especially a strong trend a correction will occur. Traders will begin to take profits and the currency pair will retrace. This signals the beginning of Wave 4.
Again the currency pair will rally ushering in the Wave 5 rally. Wave 5 is typically supported by the retail traders and not institutional buyers (the herd) and tends to lack the momentum generated in the Wave 3 rally. This creates divergence that can be easily measured on any technical oscillator. After the currency pair breaks to new highs above the previous Wave 3 high, the rally loses steam and changes trend.
This trend change can result in either a new 5 Wave impulse pattern or a corrective in nature.
Now that we know what the Elliott Wave analysis is, how would a currency trade using this analysis look like, just as an example?
Look to Wave 5 as the most reliably tradable impulse wave. The trade sets up as follows. Look for the Elliott Oscillator to pull back between 90% and 140% of the Wave 3 high on a daily chart. This pullback should correspond to a 38%-62% Fibonacci retracement from the Wave 2 extension. This signal is the strongest when the Fibonacci retracement is between 38% - 50%.
Like any technical analysis tool you never want to employ an indicator as a stand alone analysis tool. A trigger and a confirming indicator are required as well.
Look for a trigger in candle patterns, such as Harami, Tweezers or Harami cross. There are a variety of software packages on the market that perform Elliott Wave counts and have other entry signal indicators as well.
Draw a regression channel on the Wave 4 retracement and look for a break above or below the channel as confirmation to enter the trade.
Place stops at the high of the Wave 1 advance, just below the 38% Fibonacci retracement level or where your individual trading plan dictates. Trail your stops once the currency pair has advanced past the Wave 3 high. Look for reversal candle patterns like doji, hammers, shooting stars or hanging mans for signals that the wave is about to end or stall. A typical price target is 127% retracement of the Wave 4 low.
This is just a glimpse of how Elliott Wave analysis can be deployed to enhance your forex swing trade evaluations. Look more into the Elliott Wave theory and other strategies as tools for increasing your forex swing trade opportunities.
In technical analysis, just as in fundamental analysis, there are lagging indicators and leading indicators. One of the most reliable tools used to predict forex market swings is Elliott Wave analysis. Elliott Wave analysis can be used to identify trends and countertrends, trend continuation or exhaustion and to evaluate the potential price targets of a trend.
You can apply Elliott Wave analysis to both long and short position swing trade set ups for your currency pairs.
Elliott Wave theory is named after Ralph Nelson Elliott, who concluded that the markets moved in a repetitive pattern of waves. He attributed this action to the mass psychology of the market.
Elliott concluded that the market¡¯s movement was a direct result of the mass psychology of the time and that the stock market is a fractal. A fractal is an object that is similar in shape, but at different scales. A great example of a fractal in nature is a stalk of broccoli. The stalk and the individual branches look exactly the same; just the branches are smaller in scale.
Fractals just happen to form in accordance with Fibonacci ratios. Is this a coincidence?
Elliott attributes this mass psychological move to the human trait of herding. Even though Elliott¡¯s theories were based on stock market price movements, it has been applied to evaluating Presidential approval ratings and fashion trends changes as well.
The conclusion, the market price actions are not the cause of economic growth or slow down, but the reflection of the mass psychology of investors. If the mood of the investing public is upbeat then a bull market ensues. This is counter to what most individual perceive, that because there is a bull market the mood of the investing public is upbeat.
Elliott Wave patterns follow a sequence that the markets move up in a series of 3 waves and down in a series of 2 waves. This 3 wave impulse and 2 wave corrective sequence form the foundation of the 5 Wave impulse pattern (the opposite is true in a downtrend).
The Elliott Wave Counts are as follows;
Wave 1 - Short Covering
Wave 2 - Pullback from Short Covering
Wave 3 - Major Rally Phase
Wave 4 - Institution Pause in the Rally
Wave 5 - Retail Buying
Wave 1 is usually the weakest of the impulse waves. It is a brief rally based on short covering of the bears from a previous move down. When Wave 1 is complete, the currency pair sells off, creating Wave 2.
Wave 2 ends when the market fails to make new lows. You often see dominant reversals patterns form at the end of this wave signaling the being of the rally phase or Wave 3.
Wave 3 is the longest and strongest of the impulse waves. This signals strong currency buying or selling in the direction of the trend. This trend usually starts of slowly, but tends to accelerate as it breaks to new highs above the top of Wave 1.
Like any trend, especially a strong trend a correction will occur. Traders will begin to take profits and the currency pair will retrace. This signals the beginning of Wave 4.
Again the currency pair will rally ushering in the Wave 5 rally. Wave 5 is typically supported by the retail traders and not institutional buyers (the herd) and tends to lack the momentum generated in the Wave 3 rally. This creates divergence that can be easily measured on any technical oscillator. After the currency pair breaks to new highs above the previous Wave 3 high, the rally loses steam and changes trend.
This trend change can result in either a new 5 Wave impulse pattern or a corrective in nature.
Now that we know what the Elliott Wave analysis is, how would a currency trade using this analysis look like, just as an example?
Look to Wave 5 as the most reliably tradable impulse wave. The trade sets up as follows. Look for the Elliott Oscillator to pull back between 90% and 140% of the Wave 3 high on a daily chart. This pullback should correspond to a 38%-62% Fibonacci retracement from the Wave 2 extension. This signal is the strongest when the Fibonacci retracement is between 38% - 50%.
Like any technical analysis tool you never want to employ an indicator as a stand alone analysis tool. A trigger and a confirming indicator are required as well.
Look for a trigger in candle patterns, such as Harami, Tweezers or Harami cross. There are a variety of software packages on the market that perform Elliott Wave counts and have other entry signal indicators as well.
Draw a regression channel on the Wave 4 retracement and look for a break above or below the channel as confirmation to enter the trade.
Place stops at the high of the Wave 1 advance, just below the 38% Fibonacci retracement level or where your individual trading plan dictates. Trail your stops once the currency pair has advanced past the Wave 3 high. Look for reversal candle patterns like doji, hammers, shooting stars or hanging mans for signals that the wave is about to end or stall. A typical price target is 127% retracement of the Wave 4 low.
This is just a glimpse of how Elliott Wave analysis can be deployed to enhance your forex swing trade evaluations. Look more into the Elliott Wave theory and other strategies as tools for increasing your forex swing trade opportunities.
Timing is Everything With Forex Trading
The most challenging part of getting started with Forex trading is to learn
this innovative way of trading. Many potential investors that try to
navigate the Forex system unaided end up being frustrated and financially
intimidated. There are very simple strategies to becoming successful using
the foreign exchange trading system but the first step is gathering all of
the necessary information surrounding this type of trading specialty.
Securing a reliable Forex trading broker is likely the first and most
pivotal step after learning the initial principles.
Unlike many types of trading and futures, foreign exchange trading is not
designed to make the client rich quickly. Many people are frightened off by
the word that Forex trading is a get rich quick scheme that in large part,
doesn't work. This is a financial myth despite all the hype surrounding the
foreign exchange trading system. There are steps and gains to be taken in
order to secure a future in successful trading. Expect to dedicate a large
portion of time to researching and understanding the market in general
before setting out with your pocket book ready to invest. Learn all you can
about the Forex market in the beginning in order to make the Forex trading
path a smooth and triumphant one.
There is no doubt that there are numerous types of orders that can be
utilized in order to open and close trades and becoming familiar with them
is a must. In the foreign exchange trading business there are charts, graphs
and other visuals to help you effectively analyze trends in currency
trading. These charts and graphs will assist in making well-informed
decisions on what currency to sell. Timing is everything and it goes without
saying that when experiencing with the Forex trading system, knowing when to
trade can be the pivotal difference between success and failure.
Understanding the analysis tools and how to use them efficiently will put
any investor on the right track.
As well as proficient trading tools, it is an absolute necessity when using
the foreign exchange trading system to understand how to use the software to
perform actual trades. The only way to become comfortable with using Forex
trading software is to use it and learn how to plot a course through the
process. Selecting a good trader is the most imperative tip at this stage
because an established trader can help you with the services required as
well as giving you in depth tutorials using the foreign exchange trading
system.
The most critical tool that will be utilized in the Forex trading system is
patience and discipline. As mentioned earlier, foreign exchange trading is
not a get rich quick proposal so learning patience and discipline can help
you to become profitable in a timely fashion without losing money. Most
brokers offer a demo account that can be used to practice and learn the
foreign exchange trading system that mimics the real account with the
exception of real money being traded. This gives a client insight into the
market and its behaviors before actual money is invested. Learn how to make
a profit using paper trading on a regular basis before risking your capital
with Forex trading.
this innovative way of trading. Many potential investors that try to
navigate the Forex system unaided end up being frustrated and financially
intimidated. There are very simple strategies to becoming successful using
the foreign exchange trading system but the first step is gathering all of
the necessary information surrounding this type of trading specialty.
Securing a reliable Forex trading broker is likely the first and most
pivotal step after learning the initial principles.
Unlike many types of trading and futures, foreign exchange trading is not
designed to make the client rich quickly. Many people are frightened off by
the word that Forex trading is a get rich quick scheme that in large part,
doesn't work. This is a financial myth despite all the hype surrounding the
foreign exchange trading system. There are steps and gains to be taken in
order to secure a future in successful trading. Expect to dedicate a large
portion of time to researching and understanding the market in general
before setting out with your pocket book ready to invest. Learn all you can
about the Forex market in the beginning in order to make the Forex trading
path a smooth and triumphant one.
There is no doubt that there are numerous types of orders that can be
utilized in order to open and close trades and becoming familiar with them
is a must. In the foreign exchange trading business there are charts, graphs
and other visuals to help you effectively analyze trends in currency
trading. These charts and graphs will assist in making well-informed
decisions on what currency to sell. Timing is everything and it goes without
saying that when experiencing with the Forex trading system, knowing when to
trade can be the pivotal difference between success and failure.
Understanding the analysis tools and how to use them efficiently will put
any investor on the right track.
As well as proficient trading tools, it is an absolute necessity when using
the foreign exchange trading system to understand how to use the software to
perform actual trades. The only way to become comfortable with using Forex
trading software is to use it and learn how to plot a course through the
process. Selecting a good trader is the most imperative tip at this stage
because an established trader can help you with the services required as
well as giving you in depth tutorials using the foreign exchange trading
system.
The most critical tool that will be utilized in the Forex trading system is
patience and discipline. As mentioned earlier, foreign exchange trading is
not a get rich quick proposal so learning patience and discipline can help
you to become profitable in a timely fashion without losing money. Most
brokers offer a demo account that can be used to practice and learn the
foreign exchange trading system that mimics the real account with the
exception of real money being traded. This gives a client insight into the
market and its behaviors before actual money is invested. Learn how to make
a profit using paper trading on a regular basis before risking your capital
with Forex trading.
Why Hedge Foreign Currency Risk
International commerce has rapidly increased as the internet has provided a new and more transparent marketplace for individuals and entities alike to conduct international business and trading activities. Significant changes in the international economic and political landscape have led to uncertainty regarding the direction of foreign exchange rates. This uncertainty leads to volatility and the need for an effective vehicle to hedge foreign exchange rate risk and/or interest rate changes while, at the same time, effectively ensuring a future financial position.
Each entity and/or individual that has exposure to foreign exchange rate risk will have specific foreign exchange hedging needs and this website can not possibly cover every existing foreign exchange hedging situation. Therefore, we will cover the more common reasons that a foreign exchange hedge is placed and show you how to properly hedge foreign exchange rate risk.
Foreign Exchange Rate Risk Exposure - Foreign exchange rate risk exposure is common to virtually all who conduct international business and/or trading. Buying and/or selling of goods or services denominated in foreign currencies can immediately expose you to foreign exchange rate risk. If a firm price is quoted ahead of time for a contract using a foreign exchange rate that is deemed appropriate at the time the quote is given, the foreign exchange rate quote may not necessarily be appropriate at the time of the actual agreement or performance of the contract. Placing a foreign exchange hedge can help to manage this foreign exchange rate risk.
Interest Rate Risk Exposure - Interest rate exposure refers to the interest rate differential between the two countries' currencies in a foreign exchange contract. The interest rate differential is also roughly equal to the "carry" cost paid to hedge a forward or futures contract. As a side note, arbitragers are investors that take advantage when interest rate differentials between the foreign exchange spot rate and either the forward or futures contract are either to high or too low. In simplest terms, an arbitrager may sell when the carry cost he or she can collect is at a premium to the actual carry cost of the contract sold. Conversely, an arbitrager may buy when the carry cost he or she may pay is less than the actual carry cost of the contract bought. Either way, the arbitrager is looking to profit from a small price discrepancy due to interest rate differentials.
Foreign Investment / Stock Exposure - Foreign investing is considered by many investors as a way to either diversify an investment portfolio or seek a larger return on investment(s) in an economy believed to be growing at a faster pace than investment(s) in the respective domestic economy. Investing in foreign stocks automatically exposes the investor to foreign exchange rate risk and speculative risk. For example, an investor buys a particular amount of foreign currency (in exchange for domestic currency) in order to purchase shares of a foreign stock. The investor is now automatically exposed to two separate risks. First, the stock price may go either up or down and the investor is exposed to the speculative stock price risk. Second, the investor is exposed to foreign exchange rate risk because the foreign exchange rate may either appreciate or depreciate from the time the investor first purchased the foreign stock and the time the investor decides to exit the position and repatriates the currency (exchanges the foreign currency back to domestic currency). Therefore, even if a speculative profit is achieved because the foreign stock price rose, the investor could actually net lose money if devaluation of the foreign currency occurred while the investor was holding the foreign stock (and the devaluation amount was greater than the speculative profit). Placing a foreign exchange hedge can help to manage this foreign exchange rate risk.
Hedging Speculative Positions - Foreign currency traders utilize foreign exchange hedging to protect open positions against adverse moves in foreign exchange rates, and placing a foreign exchange hedge can help to manage foreign exchange rate risk. Speculative positions can be hedged via a number of foreign exchange hedging vehicles that can be used either alone or in combination to create entirely new foreign exchange hedging strategies.
Each entity and/or individual that has exposure to foreign exchange rate risk will have specific foreign exchange hedging needs and this website can not possibly cover every existing foreign exchange hedging situation. Therefore, we will cover the more common reasons that a foreign exchange hedge is placed and show you how to properly hedge foreign exchange rate risk.
Foreign Exchange Rate Risk Exposure - Foreign exchange rate risk exposure is common to virtually all who conduct international business and/or trading. Buying and/or selling of goods or services denominated in foreign currencies can immediately expose you to foreign exchange rate risk. If a firm price is quoted ahead of time for a contract using a foreign exchange rate that is deemed appropriate at the time the quote is given, the foreign exchange rate quote may not necessarily be appropriate at the time of the actual agreement or performance of the contract. Placing a foreign exchange hedge can help to manage this foreign exchange rate risk.
Interest Rate Risk Exposure - Interest rate exposure refers to the interest rate differential between the two countries' currencies in a foreign exchange contract. The interest rate differential is also roughly equal to the "carry" cost paid to hedge a forward or futures contract. As a side note, arbitragers are investors that take advantage when interest rate differentials between the foreign exchange spot rate and either the forward or futures contract are either to high or too low. In simplest terms, an arbitrager may sell when the carry cost he or she can collect is at a premium to the actual carry cost of the contract sold. Conversely, an arbitrager may buy when the carry cost he or she may pay is less than the actual carry cost of the contract bought. Either way, the arbitrager is looking to profit from a small price discrepancy due to interest rate differentials.
Foreign Investment / Stock Exposure - Foreign investing is considered by many investors as a way to either diversify an investment portfolio or seek a larger return on investment(s) in an economy believed to be growing at a faster pace than investment(s) in the respective domestic economy. Investing in foreign stocks automatically exposes the investor to foreign exchange rate risk and speculative risk. For example, an investor buys a particular amount of foreign currency (in exchange for domestic currency) in order to purchase shares of a foreign stock. The investor is now automatically exposed to two separate risks. First, the stock price may go either up or down and the investor is exposed to the speculative stock price risk. Second, the investor is exposed to foreign exchange rate risk because the foreign exchange rate may either appreciate or depreciate from the time the investor first purchased the foreign stock and the time the investor decides to exit the position and repatriates the currency (exchanges the foreign currency back to domestic currency). Therefore, even if a speculative profit is achieved because the foreign stock price rose, the investor could actually net lose money if devaluation of the foreign currency occurred while the investor was holding the foreign stock (and the devaluation amount was greater than the speculative profit). Placing a foreign exchange hedge can help to manage this foreign exchange rate risk.
Hedging Speculative Positions - Foreign currency traders utilize foreign exchange hedging to protect open positions against adverse moves in foreign exchange rates, and placing a foreign exchange hedge can help to manage foreign exchange rate risk. Speculative positions can be hedged via a number of foreign exchange hedging vehicles that can be used either alone or in combination to create entirely new foreign exchange hedging strategies.
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